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St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — 2026-07-04

8:08 PM ETWrigley FieldSP: Kyle Leahy vs Shota ImanagaMLBFINAL
Recap

St. Louis Cardinals won 3-0 over Chicago Cubs on 2026-07-04. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 3 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

St. Louis Cardinals
40%
Chicago Cubs
60%
Projected
Cardinals 4.4 - 4.5 Cubs

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Chicago Cubs as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 45-point Elo gap (1534 vs 1489) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. St. Louis Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

St. Louis Cardinals
No recent games on file.
Chicago Cubs
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: St. Louis Cardinals 40% / Chicago Cubs 60%. Projected St. Louis Cardinals 4.4 — 4.5 Chicago Cubs.

Our MLB model rates Chicago Cubs as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 45-point Elo gap (1534 vs 1489) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. St. Louis Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 8.0 at -115 at -115. Pre-game: model 58.0% vs market 51.1% implied, a +6.9pp edge.

What happened: Total: 3 (line: over 8).

Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.

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