Atlanta Braves beat St. Louis Cardinals 5-1, a 4-runs margin. We projected St. Louis Cardinals 4.3-4.6 Atlanta Braves and gave Atlanta Braves a 63% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 63%. The driver is a 67-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1489) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. St. Louis Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: St. Louis Cardinals 37% / Atlanta Braves 63%. Projected St. Louis Cardinals 4.3 — 4.6 Atlanta Braves.
Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 63%. The driver is a 67-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1489) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. St. Louis Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 9.0 at -102 at -102. Pre-game: model 56.0% vs market 48.1% implied, a +8.0pp edge.
What happened: Total: 6 (line: under 9).
Bet returned +0.98u on 1u risked.
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