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Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — 2026-09-23

6:40 PM ETCitizens Bank ParkSP: Logan Henderson vs Aaron NolaMLBFINAL
Recap

Milwaukee Brewers won 4-1 over Philadelphia Phillies on 2026-09-23. Our pre-game pick hit. Margin of 3 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Milwaukee Brewers
50%
Philadelphia Phillies
50%
Projected
Brewers 4.5 - 4.4 Phillies

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Philadelphia Phillies as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -27-point Elo gap (1450 vs 1476) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Milwaukee Brewers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Milwaukee Brewers
No recent games on file.
Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Milwaukee Brewers 50% / Philadelphia Phillies 50%. Projected Milwaukee Brewers 4.5 — 4.4 Philadelphia Phillies.

Our MLB model rates Philadelphia Phillies as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -27-point Elo gap (1450 vs 1476) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Milwaukee Brewers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Milwaukee Brewers ML at -131 at -131. Pre-game: model 57.9% vs market 54.2% implied, a +3.6pp edge.

What happened: Milwaukee Brewers 4 @ Philadelphia Phillies 1.

Bet returned +1.15u on 1.5u risked.

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