Milwaukee Brewers beat St. Louis Cardinals 8-4, a 4-runs margin. We projected Milwaukee Brewers 4.4-4.5 St. Louis Cardinals and gave St. Louis Cardinals a 55% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates St. Louis Cardinals as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 13-point Elo gap (1489 vs 1476) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Milwaukee Brewers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Milwaukee Brewers 45% / St. Louis Cardinals 55%. Projected Milwaukee Brewers 4.4 — 4.5 St. Louis Cardinals.
Our MLB model rates St. Louis Cardinals as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 13-point Elo gap (1489 vs 1476) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Milwaukee Brewers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -112 at -112. Pre-game: model 57.4% vs market 50.4% implied, a +6.9pp edge.
What happened: Total: 12 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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