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Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies — 2026-09-06

1:10 PM ETCitizens Bank ParkSP: Tyler Mahle vs Aaron NolaMLBFINAL
Recap

Atlanta Braves won 5-4 over Philadelphia Phillies on 2026-09-06. Our pre-game pick hit. Margin of 1 run.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Atlanta Braves
62%
Philadelphia Phillies
38%
Projected
Braves 4.6 - 4.3 Phillies

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 106-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Atlanta Braves
No recent games on file.
Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Atlanta Braves 62% / Philadelphia Phillies 38%. Projected Atlanta Braves 4.6 — 4.3 Philadelphia Phillies.

Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 106-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1450) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Phillies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 8.0 at -115 at -115. Pre-game: model 58.2% vs market 51.1% implied, a +7.1pp edge.

What happened: Total: 9 (line: over 8).

Bet returned +1.30u on 1.5u risked.

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