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Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres — 2026-06-22

10:10 PM ETPetco ParkSP: Grant Holmes vs Michael KingMLBFINAL
Recap

San Diego Padres won 1-0 over Atlanta Braves on 2026-06-22. Margin of 1 run.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Atlanta Braves
44%
San Diego Padres
56%
Projected
Braves 4.4 - 4.5 Padres

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 21-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1556) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Atlanta Braves would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Atlanta Braves
No recent games on file.
San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Atlanta Braves 44% / San Diego Padres 56%. Projected Atlanta Braves 4.4 — 4.5 San Diego Padres.

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 21-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1556) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Atlanta Braves would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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