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Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — 2026-07-27

7:10 PM ETCiti FieldSP: Martín Pérez vs Zac ThorntonMLBFINAL
Recap

New York Mets won 14-3 over Atlanta Braves on 2026-07-27. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 11 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Atlanta Braves
63%
New York Mets
37%
Projected
Braves 4.7 - 4.2 Mets

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 63%. The driver is a 119-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Atlanta Braves
No recent games on file.
New York Mets
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Atlanta Braves 63% / New York Mets 37%. Projected Atlanta Braves 4.7 — 4.2 New York Mets.

Our MLB model rates Atlanta Braves as the more likely winner at 63%. The driver is a 119-point Elo gap (1556 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -108 at -108. Pre-game: model 55.4% vs market 49.8% implied, a +5.6pp edge.

What happened: Total: 17 (line: under 8.5).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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