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Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals — 2026-09-06

2:10 PM ETKauffman StadiumSP: Spencer Arrighetti vs Randy DobnakMLBFINAL
Recap

Kansas City Royals won 6-1 over Toronto Blue Jays on 2026-09-06. Our pre-game pick hit. Margin of 5 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Toronto Blue Jays
46%
Kansas City Royals
54%
Projected
Jays 4.4 - 4.5 Royals

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Kansas City Royals as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 2-point Elo gap (1455 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Toronto Blue Jays
No recent games on file.
Kansas City Royals
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Toronto Blue Jays 46% / Kansas City Royals 54%. Projected Toronto Blue Jays 4.4 — 4.5 Kansas City Royals.

Our MLB model rates Kansas City Royals as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 2-point Elo gap (1455 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Kansas City Royals ML at +102 at +102. Pre-game: model 50.4% vs market 47.3% implied, a +3.1pp edge.

What happened: Toronto Blue Jays 1 @ Kansas City Royals 6.

Bet returned +1.02u on 1u risked.

Pre-game call: Under 9.5 at -118 at -118. Pre-game: model 56.9% vs market 51.7% implied, a +5.2pp edge.

What happened: Total: 7 (line: under 9.5).

Bet returned +0.85u on 1u risked.

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