Toronto Blue Jays beat Boston Red Sox 4-3, a 1-run margin. We projected Toronto Blue Jays 4.4-4.5 Boston Red Sox and gave Boston Red Sox a 58% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 29-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Toronto Blue Jays 42% / Boston Red Sox 58%. Projected Toronto Blue Jays 4.4 — 4.5 Boston Red Sox.
Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 29-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Toronto Blue Jays ML at +118 at +118. Pre-game: model 49.7% vs market 44.1% implied, a +5.6pp edge.
What happened: Toronto Blue Jays 4 @ Boston Red Sox 3.
Bet returned +1.77u on 1.5u risked.
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