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Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres — 2026-07-12

4:10 PM ETPetco ParkSP: Kevin Gausman vs Germán MárquezMLB

Model prediction

Toronto Blue Jays
30%
San Diego Padres
70%
Projected
Jays 4.2 - 4.7 Padres

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates San Diego Padres as the more likely winner at 70%. The driver is a 124-point Elo gap (1576 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Toronto Blue Jays
No recent games on file.
San Diego Padres
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at +101 at +101. Pre-game: model 55.2% vs market 47.7% implied, a +7.5pp edge.

What happened: Total: 9 (line: under 8.5).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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