HomeMLB › Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — 2026-05-31

12:15 PM ETOriole Park at Camden YardsSP: Spencer Miles vs Kyle BradishMLBFINAL
Recap

Baltimore Orioles beat Toronto Blue Jays 9-5, a 4-runs margin. We projected Toronto Blue Jays 4.4-4.5 Baltimore Orioles and gave Baltimore Orioles a 60% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Toronto Blue Jays
40%
Baltimore Orioles
60%
Projected
Jays 4.4 - 4.5 Orioles

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 44-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Toronto Blue Jays
No recent games on file.
Baltimore Orioles
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Toronto Blue Jays 40% / Baltimore Orioles 60%. Projected Toronto Blue Jays 4.4 — 4.5 Baltimore Orioles.

Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 44-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 8.0 at -102 at -102. Pre-game: model 55.9% vs market 48.2% implied, a +7.7pp edge.

What happened: Total: 14 (line: under 8).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

Get our daily picks in Discord
All sports. Model-backed picks with edge math + analysis. See pricing ->

Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.