Baltimore Orioles beat Toronto Blue Jays 9-5, a 4-runs margin. We projected Toronto Blue Jays 4.4-4.5 Baltimore Orioles and gave Baltimore Orioles a 60% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 44-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Toronto Blue Jays 40% / Baltimore Orioles 60%. Projected Toronto Blue Jays 4.4 — 4.5 Baltimore Orioles.
Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 44-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.0 at -102 at -102. Pre-game: model 55.9% vs market 48.2% implied, a +7.7pp edge.
What happened: Total: 14 (line: under 8).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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