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Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros — 2026-08-03

8:10 PM ETDaikin ParkSP: Shane Bieber vs Cristian JavierMLBFINAL
Recap

Toronto Blue Jays won 3-1 over Houston Astros on 2026-08-03. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 2 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Toronto Blue Jays
45%
Houston Astros
55%
Projected
Jays 4.4 - 4.5 Astros

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Houston Astros as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 12-point Elo gap (1464 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Toronto Blue Jays
No recent games on file.
Houston Astros
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Toronto Blue Jays 45% / Houston Astros 55%. Projected Toronto Blue Jays 4.4 — 4.5 Houston Astros.

Our MLB model rates Houston Astros as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 12-point Elo gap (1464 vs 1453) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Blue Jays would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 9.0 at -118 at -118. Pre-game: model 57.5% vs market 51.7% implied, a +5.8pp edge.

What happened: Total: 4 (line: over 9).

Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.

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