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Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks — 2026-07-21

9:40 PM ETChase FieldSP: Jack Perkins vs Kohl DrakeMLBFINAL
Recap

Athletics beat Arizona Diamondbacks 5-2, a 3-runs margin. We projected Athletics 4.4-4.5 Arizona Diamondbacks and gave Arizona Diamondbacks a 55% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Athletics
45%
Arizona Diamondbacks
55%
Projected
Athletics 4.4 - 4.5 Diamondbacks

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 12-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1533) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Athletics would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Athletics
No recent games on file.
Arizona Diamondbacks
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What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Athletics 45% / Arizona Diamondbacks 55%. Projected Athletics 4.4 — 4.5 Arizona Diamondbacks.

Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 12-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1533) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Athletics would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Arizona Diamondbacks ML at -133 at -133. Pre-game: model 61.0% vs market 55.2% implied, a +5.8pp edge.

What happened: Athletics 5 @ Arizona Diamondbacks 6.

Bet returned +1.50u on 2u risked.

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