Chicago White Sox beat Houston Astros 12-3, a 9-runs margin. We projected Houston Astros 4.5-4.4 Chicago White Sox and gave Chicago White Sox a 51% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Chicago White Sox as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -20-point Elo gap (1444 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Houston Astros 49% / Chicago White Sox 51%. Projected Houston Astros 4.5 — 4.4 Chicago White Sox.
Our MLB model rates Chicago White Sox as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -20-point Elo gap (1444 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 9.5 at +100 at +100. Pre-game: model 54.9% vs market 47.9% implied, a +7.0pp edge.
What happened: Total: 15 (line: over 9.5).
Bet returned +1.00u on 1u risked.
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