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Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers — 2026-06-25

6:40 PM ETComerica ParkSP: Tatsuya Imai vs Troy MeltonMLBFINAL
Recap

Houston Astros beat Detroit Tigers 2-1, a 1-run margin. We projected Houston Astros 4.4-4.5 Detroit Tigers and gave Detroit Tigers a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Houston Astros
41%
Detroit Tigers
59%
Projected
Astros 4.4 - 4.5 Tigers

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Detroit Tigers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 36-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Houston Astros
No recent games on file.
Detroit Tigers
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Houston Astros 41% / Detroit Tigers 59%. Projected Houston Astros 4.4 — 4.5 Detroit Tigers.

Our MLB model rates Detroit Tigers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 36-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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