HomeMLB › Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies — 2026-09-10

1:05 PM ETCitizens Bank ParkSP: Cristian Javier vs Zack WheelerMLB

Model prediction

Houston Astros
49%
Philadelphia Phillies
51%
Projected
Astros 4.5 - 4.4 Phillies

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Philadelphia Phillies as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -15-point Elo gap (1450 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Houston Astros
No recent games on file.
Philadelphia Phillies
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Philadelphia Phillies ML at -188 at -188. Pre-game: model 67.8% vs market 63.0% implied, a +4.7pp edge.

What happened: Houston Astros 2 @ Philadelphia Phillies 1.

Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.

Get our daily picks in Discord
All sports. Model-backed picks with edge math + analysis. See pricing ->

Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.