Our MLB model rates Washington Nationals as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 9-point Elo gap (1473 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Washington Nationals ML at -118 at -118. Pre-game: model 57.8% vs market 52.5% implied, a +5.4pp edge.
What happened: Houston Astros 6 @ Washington Nationals 3.
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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