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Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals — 2026-07-07

6:45 PM ETNationals ParkSP: Tatsuya Imai vs Andrew AlvarezMLB

Model prediction

Houston Astros
45%
Washington Nationals
55%
Projected
Astros 4.4 - 4.5 Nationals

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Washington Nationals as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 9-point Elo gap (1473 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Houston Astros
No recent games on file.
Washington Nationals
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Washington Nationals ML at -118 at -118. Pre-game: model 57.8% vs market 52.5% implied, a +5.4pp edge.

What happened: Houston Astros 6 @ Washington Nationals 3.

Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.

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