Houston Astros won 6-3 over New York Mets on 2026-08-30. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 3 runs.
Our MLB model rates Houston Astros as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 28-point Elo gap (1464 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Houston Astros 51% / New York Mets 49%. Projected Houston Astros 4.5 — 4.4 New York Mets.
Our MLB model rates Houston Astros as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 28-point Elo gap (1464 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: New York Mets ML at -119 at -119. Pre-game: model 61.1% vs market 53.4% implied, a +7.7pp edge.
What happened: Houston Astros 6 @ New York Mets 3.
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
Pre-game call: Over 9.0 at -109 at -109. Pre-game: model 55.2% vs market 49.9% implied, a +5.3pp edge.
What happened: Total: 9 PUSH (line: over 9).
Bet returned +0.00u.
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