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Houston Astros vs New York Mets — 2026-08-28

7:10 PM ETCiti FieldSP: Hunter Brown vs Christian ScottMLB

Model prediction

Houston Astros
51%
New York Mets
49%
Projected
Astros 4.5 - 4.4 Mets

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Houston Astros as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 28-point Elo gap (1464 vs 1437) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Mets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Houston Astros
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New York Mets
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