Houston Astros beat Toronto Blue Jays 9-7, a 2-runs margin. We projected Houston Astros 4.5-4.4 Toronto Blue Jays and gave Toronto Blue Jays a 52% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.
Our MLB model rates Toronto Blue Jays as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a -12-point Elo gap (1453 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Houston Astros 48% / Toronto Blue Jays 52%. Projected Houston Astros 4.5 — 4.4 Toronto Blue Jays.
Our MLB model rates Toronto Blue Jays as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a -12-point Elo gap (1453 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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