Houston Astros beat Los Angeles Angels 3-2, a 1-run margin. We projected Houston Astros 4.4-4.5 Los Angeles Angels and gave Los Angeles Angels a 58% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Los Angeles Angels as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 31-point Elo gap (1496 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Houston Astros 42% / Los Angeles Angels 58%. Projected Houston Astros 4.4 — 4.5 Los Angeles Angels.
Our MLB model rates Los Angeles Angels as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 31-point Elo gap (1496 vs 1464) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Astros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 9.5 at -115 at -115. Pre-game: model 58.6% vs market 51.1% implied, a +7.5pp edge.
What happened: Total: 11 (line: over 9.5).
Bet returned +1.30u on 1.5u risked.
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