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UL Monroe Warhawks vs South Alabama Jaguars — 2026-10-03

7:00 PM ETHancock Whitney StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

South Alabama Jaguars beat UL Monroe Warhawks 52-35, a 17-points margin. We projected UL Monroe Warhawks 26.0-26.0 South Alabama Jaguars and gave South Alabama Jaguars a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

UL Monroe Warhawks
41%
South Alabama Jaguars
59%
Projected
Warhawks 26.0 - 26.0 Jaguars

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates South Alabama Jaguars as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. UL Monroe Warhawks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

UL Monroe Warhawks
No recent games on file.
South Alabama Jaguars
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: UL Monroe Warhawks 41% / South Alabama Jaguars 59%. Projected UL Monroe Warhawks 26 — 26 South Alabama Jaguars.

Our CFB model rates South Alabama Jaguars as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. UL Monroe Warhawks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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