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UL Monroe Warhawks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs — 2026-09-05

7:30 PM ETDavis Wade StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Mississippi State Bulldogs beat UL Monroe Warhawks 62-13, a 49-points margin. We projected UL Monroe Warhawks 26.0-26.0 Mississippi State Bulldogs and gave Mississippi State Bulldogs a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

UL Monroe Warhawks
41%
Mississippi State Bulldogs
59%
Projected
Warhawks 26.0 - 26.0 Bulldogs

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Mississippi State Bulldogs as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. UL Monroe Warhawks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

UL Monroe Warhawks
No recent games on file.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: UL Monroe Warhawks 41% / Mississippi State Bulldogs 59%. Projected UL Monroe Warhawks 26 — 26 Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Our CFB model rates Mississippi State Bulldogs as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. UL Monroe Warhawks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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