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UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs UTSA Roadrunners — 2026-09-05

3:30 PM ETAlamodomeCFBFINAL
Recap

UTSA Roadrunners beat UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 45-16, a 29-points margin. We projected UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 26.0-26.0 UTSA Roadrunners and gave UTSA Roadrunners a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
41%
UTSA Roadrunners
59%
Projected
Vaqueros 26.0 - 26.0 Roadrunners

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates UTSA Roadrunners as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
No recent games on file.
UTSA Roadrunners
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 41% / UTSA Roadrunners 59%. Projected UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 26 — 26 UTSA Roadrunners.

Our CFB model rates UTSA Roadrunners as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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