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Michigan State Spartans vs Wisconsin Badgers — 2026-10-03

12:30 PM ETCamp Randall StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Wisconsin Badgers beat Michigan State Spartans 31-3, a 28-points margin. We projected Michigan State Spartans 26.0-26.0 Wisconsin Badgers and gave Wisconsin Badgers a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Michigan State Spartans
41%
Wisconsin Badgers
59%
Projected
Spartans 26.0 - 26.0 Badgers

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Wisconsin Badgers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Michigan State Spartans would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Michigan State Spartans
No recent games on file.
Wisconsin Badgers
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Michigan State Spartans 41% / Wisconsin Badgers 59%. Projected Michigan State Spartans 26 — 26 Wisconsin Badgers.

Our CFB model rates Wisconsin Badgers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Michigan State Spartans would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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