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Florida State Seminoles vs Louisville Cardinals — 2026-10-09

7:00 PM ETL&N Federal Credit Union StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Louisville Cardinals beat Florida State Seminoles 44-20, a 24-points margin. We projected Florida State Seminoles 26.0-26.0 Louisville Cardinals and gave Louisville Cardinals a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Florida State Seminoles
41%
Louisville Cardinals
59%
Projected
Seminoles 26.0 - 26.0 Cardinals

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Louisville Cardinals as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Florida State Seminoles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Florida State Seminoles
No recent games on file.
Louisville Cardinals
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What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Florida State Seminoles 41% / Louisville Cardinals 59%. Projected Florida State Seminoles 26 — 26 Louisville Cardinals.

Our CFB model rates Louisville Cardinals as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Florida State Seminoles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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