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West Virginia Mountaineers vs Iowa State Cyclones — 2026-10-03

12:00 PM ETJack Trice StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Iowa State Cyclones beat West Virginia Mountaineers 45-42, a 3-points margin. We projected West Virginia Mountaineers 26.0-26.0 Iowa State Cyclones and gave Iowa State Cyclones a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

West Virginia Mountaineers
41%
Iowa State Cyclones
59%
Projected
Mountaineers 26.0 - 26.0 Cyclones

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Iowa State Cyclones as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. West Virginia Mountaineers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

West Virginia Mountaineers
No recent games on file.
Iowa State Cyclones
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: West Virginia Mountaineers 41% / Iowa State Cyclones 59%. Projected West Virginia Mountaineers 26 — 26 Iowa State Cyclones.

Our CFB model rates Iowa State Cyclones as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. West Virginia Mountaineers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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