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Texas Longhorns vs Tennessee Volunteers — 2026-09-26

12:00 PM ETNeyland StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Texas Longhorns beat Tennessee Volunteers 20-17, a 3-points margin. We projected Texas Longhorns 26.0-26.0 Tennessee Volunteers and gave Tennessee Volunteers a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Texas Longhorns
41%
Tennessee Volunteers
59%
Projected
Longhorns 26.0 - 26.0 Volunteers

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Tennessee Volunteers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Texas Longhorns would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Texas Longhorns
No recent games on file.
Tennessee Volunteers
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Texas Longhorns 41% / Tennessee Volunteers 59%. Projected Texas Longhorns 26 — 26 Tennessee Volunteers.

Our CFB model rates Tennessee Volunteers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Texas Longhorns would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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