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Lindenwood Lions vs Missouri State Bears — 2026-09-12

7:00 PM ETRobert W. Plaster StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Missouri State Bears beat Lindenwood Lions 48-14, a 34-points margin. We projected Lindenwood Lions 26.0-26.0 Missouri State Bears and gave Missouri State Bears a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Lindenwood Lions
41%
Missouri State Bears
59%
Projected
Lions 26.0 - 26.0 Bears

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Missouri State Bears as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Lindenwood Lions would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Lindenwood Lions
No recent games on file.
Missouri State Bears
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Lindenwood Lions 41% / Missouri State Bears 59%. Projected Lindenwood Lions 26 — 26 Missouri State Bears.

Our CFB model rates Missouri State Bears as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Lindenwood Lions would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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