South Alabama Jaguars beat Arkansas State Red Wolves 56-49, a 7-points margin. We projected South Alabama Jaguars 26.0-26.0 Arkansas State Red Wolves and gave Arkansas State Red Wolves a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.
Our CFB model rates Arkansas State Red Wolves as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. South Alabama Jaguars would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: South Alabama Jaguars 41% / Arkansas State Red Wolves 59%. Projected South Alabama Jaguars 26 — 26 Arkansas State Red Wolves.
Our CFB model rates Arkansas State Red Wolves as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. South Alabama Jaguars would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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