Notre Dame Fighting Irish beat North Carolina Tar Heels 37-26, a 11-points margin. We projected Notre Dame Fighting Irish 26.0-26.0 North Carolina Tar Heels and gave North Carolina Tar Heels a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.
Our CFB model rates North Carolina Tar Heels as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Notre Dame Fighting Irish would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 41% / North Carolina Tar Heels 59%. Projected Notre Dame Fighting Irish 26 — 26 North Carolina Tar Heels.
Our CFB model rates North Carolina Tar Heels as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Notre Dame Fighting Irish would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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