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Sacramento State Hornets vs Bowling Green Falcons — 2026-10-10

12:00 PM ETDoyt L. Perry StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Bowling Green Falcons beat Sacramento State Hornets 38-10, a 28-points margin. We projected Sacramento State Hornets 26.0-26.0 Bowling Green Falcons and gave Bowling Green Falcons a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Sacramento State Hornets
41%
Bowling Green Falcons
59%
Projected
Hornets 26.0 - 26.0 Falcons

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Bowling Green Falcons as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Sacramento State Hornets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Sacramento State Hornets
No recent games on file.
Bowling Green Falcons
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Sacramento State Hornets 41% / Bowling Green Falcons 59%. Projected Sacramento State Hornets 26 — 26 Bowling Green Falcons.

Our CFB model rates Bowling Green Falcons as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Sacramento State Hornets would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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