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Marshall Thundering Herd vs Penn State Nittany Lions — 2026-09-05

3:30 PM ETBeaver StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Penn State Nittany Lions beat Marshall Thundering Herd 45-0, a 45-points margin. We projected Marshall Thundering Herd 26.0-26.0 Penn State Nittany Lions and gave Penn State Nittany Lions a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Marshall Thundering Herd
41%
Penn State Nittany Lions
59%
Projected
Herd 26.0 - 26.0 Lions

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Penn State Nittany Lions as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Marshall Thundering Herd would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Marshall Thundering Herd
No recent games on file.
Penn State Nittany Lions
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Marshall Thundering Herd 41% / Penn State Nittany Lions 59%. Projected Marshall Thundering Herd 26 — 26 Penn State Nittany Lions.

Our CFB model rates Penn State Nittany Lions as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Marshall Thundering Herd would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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