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Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks — 2026-10-03

3:30 PM ETYager StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Bowling Green Falcons beat Miami (OH) RedHawks 24-20, a 4-points margin. We projected Bowling Green Falcons 26.0-26.0 Miami (OH) RedHawks and gave Miami (OH) RedHawks a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Bowling Green Falcons
41%
Miami (OH) RedHawks
59%
Projected
Falcons 26.0 - 26.0 RedHawks

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Miami (OH) RedHawks as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Bowling Green Falcons would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Bowling Green Falcons
No recent games on file.
Miami (OH) RedHawks
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Bowling Green Falcons 41% / Miami (OH) RedHawks 59%. Projected Bowling Green Falcons 26 — 26 Miami (OH) RedHawks.

Our CFB model rates Miami (OH) RedHawks as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Bowling Green Falcons would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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