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Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs — 2026-10-03

12:00 PM ETGerald J. Ford StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

SMU Mustangs beat Boston College Eagles 25-16, a 9-points margin. We projected Boston College Eagles 26.0-26.0 SMU Mustangs and gave SMU Mustangs a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Boston College Eagles
41%
SMU Mustangs
59%
Projected
Eagles 26.0 - 26.0 Mustangs

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates SMU Mustangs as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston College Eagles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Boston College Eagles
No recent games on file.
SMU Mustangs
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What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Boston College Eagles 41% / SMU Mustangs 59%. Projected Boston College Eagles 26 — 26 SMU Mustangs.

Our CFB model rates SMU Mustangs as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston College Eagles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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