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Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles — 2026-10-03

3:30 PM ETDoak Campbell StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Florida State Seminoles beat Virginia Cavaliers 38-7, a 31-points margin. We projected Virginia Cavaliers 26.0-26.0 Florida State Seminoles and gave Florida State Seminoles a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Virginia Cavaliers
41%
Florida State Seminoles
59%
Projected
Cavaliers 26.0 - 26.0 Seminoles

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Florida State Seminoles as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Virginia Cavaliers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Virginia Cavaliers
No recent games on file.
Florida State Seminoles
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Virginia Cavaliers 41% / Florida State Seminoles 59%. Projected Virginia Cavaliers 26 — 26 Florida State Seminoles.

Our CFB model rates Florida State Seminoles as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Virginia Cavaliers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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