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Louisville Cardinals vs Ole Miss Rebels — 2026-09-06

7:30 PM ETNissan StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Ole Miss Rebels beat Louisville Cardinals 41-38, a 3-points margin. We projected Louisville Cardinals 26.0-26.0 Ole Miss Rebels and gave Ole Miss Rebels a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Louisville Cardinals
41%
Ole Miss Rebels
59%
Projected
Cardinals 26.0 - 26.0 Rebels

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Ole Miss Rebels as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Louisville Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Louisville Cardinals
No recent games on file.
Ole Miss Rebels
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Louisville Cardinals 41% / Ole Miss Rebels 59%. Projected Louisville Cardinals 26 — 26 Ole Miss Rebels.

Our CFB model rates Ole Miss Rebels as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Louisville Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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