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Ohio State Buckeyes vs Texas Longhorns — 2026-09-12

7:30 PM ETDKR-Texas Memorial StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Texas Longhorns beat Ohio State Buckeyes 24-23, a 1-point margin. We projected Ohio State Buckeyes 26.0-26.0 Texas Longhorns and gave Texas Longhorns a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Ohio State Buckeyes
41%
Texas Longhorns
59%
Projected
Buckeyes 26.0 - 26.0 Longhorns

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Texas Longhorns as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Ohio State Buckeyes would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Ohio State Buckeyes
No recent games on file.
Texas Longhorns
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Ohio State Buckeyes 41% / Texas Longhorns 59%. Projected Ohio State Buckeyes 26 — 26 Texas Longhorns.

Our CFB model rates Texas Longhorns as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Ohio State Buckeyes would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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