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Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos — 2026-10-03

7:30 PM ETAlbertsons StadiumCFBFINAL
Recap

Boise State Broncos beat Utah State Aggies 37-18, a 19-points margin. We projected Utah State Aggies 26.0-26.0 Boise State Broncos and gave Boise State Broncos a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Utah State Aggies
41%
Boise State Broncos
59%
Projected
Aggies 26.0 - 26.0 Broncos

What our model sees

Our CFB model rates Boise State Broncos as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Utah State Aggies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Utah State Aggies
No recent games on file.
Boise State Broncos
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Utah State Aggies 41% / Boise State Broncos 59%. Projected Utah State Aggies 26 — 26 Boise State Broncos.

Our CFB model rates Boise State Broncos as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Utah State Aggies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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