Shooting efficiency including two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws on a single scale.
Field goal percentage ignores free throws. Effective field goal percentage fixes the three-point distortion but still ignores free throws. True shooting percentage closes the loop.
The formula divides total points by an estimate of total scoring possessions. Field goal attempts count as one possession each; free throws are pro-rated by a factor of 0.44 because most free-throw trips are two-shot bonus situations that follow a fouled shot. The denominator therefore approximates the number of possessions on which the player tried to score.
The result is a single percentage that captures everything that matters about scoring efficiency. A player who shoots a modest 44% from the field but takes ten three-pointers a game and shoots 90% from the line will have an excellent true shooting percentage — often above 60%. A traditional center who shoots 55% from the field but never takes threes and shoots 65% from the line might post a true shooting in the mid-50s, lower than his field goal percentage suggests.
League-average true shooting in the modern NBA sits near 56%. Above 60% over a full season is elite; sustained marks above 63% are MVP-caliber. The metric is the standard for player efficiency comparisons across eras — it survives rule changes, pace changes, and shot-profile changes more gracefully than raw scoring numbers.
Our player-prop scoring projections start from a true shooting prior. We blend in usage and pace to convert TS% into expected points; the projection is then compared against the prop line.