● LIVE · Final
Leaderboard · our pre-event model rank in the last column
| Pos | Player | Total | Model |
|---|
| 1 | Michael Thorbjornsen | -18 | #54 |
| 2 | Xander Schauffele | -16 | #7 |
| 3 | Davis Riley | -15 | — |
| 4 | Rasmus Højgaard | -14 | — |
| 5 | Hideki Matsuyama | -13 | #46 |
| 6 | Matt Wallace | -13 | #43 |
| 7 | Kristoffer Ventura | -13 | — |
| 8 | Davis Thompson | -12 | — |
| 9 | Ryan Gerard | -12 | #39 |
| 10 | Patrick Cantlay | -12 | #21 |
| 11 | Michael Kim | -12 | #63 |
| 12 | Chris Kirk | -12 | — |
| 13 | Rickie Fowler | -12 | #34 |
| 14 | Cameron Young | -12 | #10 |
| 15 | Sungjae Im | -11 | #73 |
| 16 | Keegan Bradley | -11 | #35 |
| 17 | Doug Ghim | -11 | — |
| 18 | Rico Hoey | -11 | — |
| 19 | Michael Brennan | -11 | #77 |
| 20 | Chandler Blanchet | -10 | — |
The read
Royal Birkdale is the connoisseur's links — the layout the players themselves rank at the top of the rota — because it defends without deceiving. Its fairways run flat-bottomed through the dune valleys, so a well-struck drive stays put instead of kicking sideways off a hidden slope; the randomness that haunts other links is stripped out, and what's left is a pure examination of ball-striking. The teeth are honest ones: deep revetted pot bunkers guarding the ideal lines, long, exacting approaches, and an Irish Sea wind that turns a benign par-4 into a two-shot survival test. Our model leans into complete ball-strikers who drive it in position and control their flight, and it quietly trims the one-dimensional bomber whose length the setup doesn't reward. The tournament is rarely settled early — the long par-4 6th sets the tone, and a closing run of two reachable par-5s and a demanding 18th beneath the clubhouse windows keeps the Claret Jug in play to the last.
What wins at Royal Birkdale
How our model weights the skills that actually move the needle here — distance is deliberately down-weighted.
Approach play30%
Long, exacting second shots to well-defended greens — proximity from distance decides it.
Driving (position + power)26%
Fair, flat-bottomed fairways reward committed driving, but revetted pot bunkers punish the wayward miss.
Wind & flight control20%
Exposed Irish Sea coast — trajectory control and the knock-down flight separate the field.
Scrambling & around-green14%
Miss into a pot bunker or dune grass and par becomes a grind; up-and-down rate decides weekends.
Putting10%
True but not tricked-up greens — putting matters, but it isn't the primary defense.
Course fit — who the setup helps and hurts
Each player's course-fit shift (Top-20 probability) once this week's demands are layered onto raw talent — where the board diverges from a generic power ranking.
▲ The course gives
Alex Noren▲ +4.3pp
Win 0.6% · Top-20 18%
Russell Henley▲ +3.8pp
Win 1.2% · Top-20 26%
Aaron Rai▲ +3.7pp
Win 1.2% · Top-20 26%
Brian Harman▲ +2.7pp
Win 0.6% · Top-20 17%
John Parry▲ +2.4pp
Win 0.2% · Top-20 11%
Nick Taylor▲ +2.1pp
Win 0.4% · Top-20 14%
▼ The course takes
Rory McIlroy▼ −8.2pp
Win 6.0% · Top-20 48%
Jon Rahm▼ −5.7pp
Win 3.5% · Top-20 40%
Chris Gotterup▼ −5.7pp
Win 1.8% · Top-20 28%
Scottie Scheffler▼ −4.9pp
Win 9.2% · Top-20 59%
Bryson DeChambeau▼ −4.9pp
Win 1.0% · Top-20 20%
Min Woo Lee▼ −4.8pp
Win 1.8% · Top-20 29%
Scouting report — the contenders
Our model's one-line read on each headliner — what the course does to their game.
Scottie SchefflerELITE FIT
World No. 1 with the most complete tee-to-green profile in the field and no soft spot. Birkdale rewards exactly what he does best, and the setup adds nothing he needs. The man to beat.
Rory McIlroyELITE FIT
The purest driver in the game, and Birkdale's flat-bottomed fairways let him unleash it in position. If the iron flight holds in the wind, this is a course he's long called one of his favorites.
Tommy FleetwoodELITE FIT
Southport's own — raised minutes from these dunes, with links craft in his DNA. Complete tee-to-green and a clean course fit; the kind of week his home galleries have waited for.
Matt FitzpatrickGOOD FIT
A precision ball-striker and around-the-green surgeon — the archetype this venue rewards. Short on length, but Birkdale prizes position and iron control over raw power.
Jon RahmGOOD FIT
Power and elite ball-striking in one package; the model trims him only slightly for a putter that runs hot and cold. In wind, his low, driving flight is a genuine weapon.
Viktor HovlandGOOD FIT
Elite iron play is a natural fit for these exacting approaches; the touch around revetted pot bunkers is the historical soft spot. When the wedge game cooperates, he contends anywhere.
Xander SchauffeleGOOD FIT
A big-game closer with no glaring weakness and a champion's pedigree in this event. Balanced tee-to-green and ice in the wind — exactly the Birkdale toolkit.
Ludvig AbergTOUGH FIT
Prodigious ball-striker whose iron play travels to any test. The game around the green is the one gate a revetted-bunker links can expose, but the ceiling is a champion's.
Cameron YoungTOUGH FIT
Big-time firepower off the tee and improving irons. When the approach play settles in the wind, his profile maps cleanly onto Birkdale's demand for long, precise second shots.
Si Woo KimELITE FIT
Quietly elite ball-striker with a sharp all-around game. The setup rewards his precision more than the market gives him credit for; the putter is the swing factor.
Min Woo LeeTOUGH FIT
Explosive off the tee with soft hands around the green. The approach play in wind is the variable, but the power-and-touch combination carries a links-friendly ceiling.
Chris GotterupTOUGH FIT
A surging ball-striker with real length off the tee and a hot putter. The four-round links test is the unknown, but the raw tee-to-green quality has climbed near the top of the board.
Conditions & the wave draw
Live forecast — the wind is the defense, and the tee-time draw can be worth half a shot.
Thu R1
10mph
gusts 20
77°F · 0% rain
Fri R2
12mph
gusts 23
72°F · 0% rain
Sat R3
11mph
gusts 22
70°F · 92% rain
Sun R4
11mph
gusts 23
68°F · 0% rain
Thursday's morning wave averages ~8 mph vs ~8 mph in the afternoon — the draw looks roughly even on wind. On an exposed course the morning/afternoon split matters, and our model accounts for the wave advantage. The cut falls after Round 2 — the cut falls after Round 2 (top 70 & ties), which landed near +5 at the 2017 Open here.
☀ Thursday AM wave — top names
Xander SchauffeleSi Woo KimWyndham ClarkChris GotterupRickie FowlerKeegan BradleyRyan GerardAkshay Bhatia
🌗 Thursday PM wave — top names
Cameron YoungPatrick CantlayRussell HenleyJ.J. SpaunHarris EnglishBen GriffinNicolai HojgaardCorey Conners
Past champions at Royal Birkdale
Birkdale's winning scores swing hard with the weather — from Spieth's −12 in benign 2017 to Harrington's +3 in the 2008 gale. Read the forecast before the board: the venue is only as hard as the wind lets it be.
| Year | Champion | Score | The story |
|---|
| 2017 | Jordan Spieth | −12 (268) | A Sunday duel with Matt Kuchar and the famous driving-range bogey save at 13 — one of the great modern Opens |
| 2008 | Padraig Harrington | +3 (283) | Brutal wind and rain — a survival test where only a handful ever got near par |
| 1998 | Mark O'Meara | E (280) | Won a four-hole playoff over Brian Watts after a wind-and-rain weekend |
| 1991 | Ian Baker-Finch | −8 (272) | A dazzling front-nine 29 on Sunday to run clear of the field |
| 1983 | Tom Watson | −9 (275) | The fifth and final Open of a links master |
| 1976 | Johnny Miller | −9 (279) | Miller ran away by six as a 19-year-old Seve Ballesteros announced himself to the world |
The contenders — skill profiles
Season-long strokes-gained — the skill baseline behind the board. Approach and Around-Green carry the most weight here.
| Player | SG Total | Off-Tee | Approach | Around-Grn | Putting |
|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +2.68 | +0.76 | +1.03 | +0.38 | +0.52 |
| Rory McIlroy | +2.14 | +0.97 | +0.58 | +0.19 | +0.40 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +1.95 | +0.28 | +0.91 | +0.46 | +0.29 |
| Jon Rahm | +1.94 | +0.80 | +0.65 | +0.27 | +0.22 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1.85 | +0.56 | +0.64 | +0.31 | +0.33 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1.68 | +0.60 | +0.74 | +0.12 | +0.22 |
| Cameron Young | +1.67 | +0.62 | +0.65 | +0.21 | +0.19 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1.65 | +0.46 | +0.80 | +0.18 | +0.20 |
| Sam Burns | +1.64 | +0.36 | +0.58 | +0.08 | +0.62 |
| Si Woo Kim | +1.64 | +0.53 | +0.75 | +0.24 | +0.12 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1.63 | +0.68 | +0.61 | +0.16 | +0.19 |
| Chris Gotterup | +1.62 | +0.64 | +0.51 | +0.05 | +0.41 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1.61 | +0.55 | +0.81 | +0.06 | +0.19 |
| Min Woo Lee | +1.54 | +0.64 | +0.47 | +0.26 | +0.18 |
| Wyndham Clark | +1.49 | +0.09 | +0.44 | +0.38 | +0.58 |
Model board — full field
Our blended model (course-fit overlay on baseline form) for the field. ELITE/GOOD FIT and TOUGH FIT flag how each game maps to the course.
| Player | Win | Top 10 | Top 20 | Make Cut |
|---|
| Scottie Scheffler ELITE FIT | 9.2% | 42% | 59% | 87% |
| Rory McIlroy ELITE FIT | 6.0% | 32% | 48% | 81% |
| Tommy Fleetwood ELITE FIT | 5.3% | 32% | 49% | 83% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick GOOD FIT | 4.8% | 31% | 48% | 82% |
| Jon Rahm GOOD FIT | 3.5% | 25% | 40% | 78% |
| Viktor Hovland GOOD FIT | 2.9% | 22% | 38% | 77% |
| Xander Schauffele GOOD FIT | 2.9% | 22% | 36% | 75% |
| Robert MacIntyre GOOD FIT | 2.7% | 21% | 36% | 77% |
| Ludvig Aberg TOUGH FIT | 2.4% | 19% | 33% | 72% |
| Cameron Young TOUGH FIT | 1.9% | 16% | 29% | 70% |
| Si Woo Kim ELITE FIT | 1.9% | 18% | 32% | 74% |
| Justin Rose NEUTRAL | 1.8% | 16% | 29% | 70% |
| Min Woo Lee TOUGH FIT | 1.8% | 16% | 29% | 71% |
| Wyndham Clark TOUGH FIT | 1.8% | 16% | 28% | 70% |
| Tyrrell Hatton TOUGH FIT | 1.8% | 17% | 30% | 72% |
| Chris Gotterup TOUGH FIT | 1.8% | 16% | 28% | 70% |
| Collin Morikawa NEUTRAL | 1.8% | 16% | 29% | 71% |
| Justin Thomas NEUTRAL | 1.6% | 15% | 27% | 69% |
| Shane Lowry GOOD FIT | 1.6% | 16% | 29% | 71% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick NEUTRAL | 1.5% | 15% | 28% | 72% |
| Patrick Cantlay TOUGH FIT | 1.5% | 14% | 27% | 70% |
| Sam Burns TOUGH FIT | 1.4% | 14% | 26% | 69% |
| Joaquin Niemann TOUGH FIT | 1.4% | 13% | 25% | 68% |
| Tom Kim GOOD FIT | 1.4% | 14% | 26% | 70% |
| Russell Henley ELITE FIT | 1.2% | 14% | 26% | 70% |
| Aaron Rai ELITE FIT | 1.2% | 13% | 26% | 70% |
| J.J. Spaun NEUTRAL | 1.0% | 11% | 23% | 67% |
| Kurt Kitayama TOUGH FIT | 1.0% | 10% | 21% | 65% |
| Bryson DeChambeau TOUGH FIT | 1.0% | 10% | 20% | 61% |
| Harris English NEUTRAL | 0.9% | 12% | 23% | 68% |
| Ben Griffin NEUTRAL | 0.9% | 11% | 23% | 67% |
| Patrick Reed ELITE FIT | 0.9% | 12% | 23% | 68% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard TOUGH FIT | 0.9% | 10% | 20% | 64% |
| Rickie Fowler GOOD FIT | 0.8% | 10% | 20% | 64% |
| Keegan Bradley NEUTRAL | 0.8% | 9% | 19% | 63% |
| Adam Scott NEUTRAL | 0.8% | 9% | 19% | 63% |
| Maverick McNealy NEUTRAL | 0.8% | 9% | 19% | 62% |
| Kristoffer Reitan TOUGH FIT | 0.7% | 8% | 17% | 61% |
| Ryan Gerard NEUTRAL | 0.7% | 9% | 18% | 62% |
| Victor Perez NEUTRAL | 0.7% | 8% | 18% | 63% |
| Corey Conners ELITE FIT | 0.6% | 8% | 17% | 62% |
| Alex Noren ELITE FIT | 0.6% | 9% | 18% | 63% |
| Matt Wallace GOOD FIT | 0.6% | 8% | 17% | 62% |
| Jordan Spieth GOOD FIT | 0.6% | 8% | 17% | 60% |
| Brian Harman ELITE FIT | 0.6% | 8% | 17% | 61% |
| Hideki Matsuyama ELITE FIT | 0.6% | 8% | 18% | 62% |
| Akshay Bhatia NEUTRAL | 0.5% | 8% | 17% | 60% |
| Bud Cauley GOOD FIT | 0.5% | 7% | 16% | 60% |
| Brooks Koepka NEUTRAL | 0.5% | 7% | 14% | 56% |
| Jordan Smith NEUTRAL | 0.5% | 7% | 15% | 59% |
| Tom McKibbin NEUTRAL | 0.5% | 6% | 15% | 59% |
| Ryan Fox NEUTRAL | 0.5% | 7% | 15% | 61% |
| Eugenio Chacarra NEUTRAL | 0.4% | 7% | 15% | 60% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen NEUTRAL | 0.4% | 7% | 14% | 58% |
| Keith Mitchell NEUTRAL | 0.4% | 6% | 14% | 58% |
| Alex Smalley NEUTRAL | 0.4% | 6% | 14% | 57% |
| Nick Taylor ELITE FIT | 0.4% | 6% | 14% | 58% |
| Jacob Bridgeman GOOD FIT | 0.4% | 5% | 13% | 55% |
| Eric Cole GOOD FIT | 0.4% | 6% | 13% | 57% |
| J.T. Poston ELITE FIT | 0.4% | 6% | 13% | 57% |
| Max Homa NEUTRAL | 0.4% | 6% | 13% | 56% |
| Jason Day ELITE FIT | 0.3% | 6% | 13% | 55% |
| Michael Kim GOOD FIT | 0.3% | 6% | 13% | 58% |
| Sahith Theegala NEUTRAL | 0.3% | 5% | 12% | 56% |
| Jake Knapp TOUGH FIT | 0.3% | 5% | 11% | 52% |
| Gary Woodland NEUTRAL | 0.3% | 5% | 12% | 54% |
| Max Greyserman NEUTRAL | 0.3% | 5% | 12% | 55% |
| Harry Hall GOOD FIT | 0.3% | 5% | 12% | 57% |
| Andrew Novak GOOD FIT | 0.3% | 5% | 12% | 55% |
| David Puig TOUGH FIT | 0.3% | 4% | 11% | 51% |
| Angel Ayora TOUGH FIT | 0.3% | 4% | 10% | 52% |
| Casey Jarvis ELITE FIT | 0.3% | 5% | 12% | 55% |
| Sungjae Im GOOD FIT | 0.3% | 4% | 11% | 53% |
| Sepp Straka GOOD FIT | 0.3% | 5% | 11% | 54% |
| Thomas Detry NEUTRAL | 0.3% | 5% | 11% | 54% |
| Ryo Hisatsune GOOD FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 11% | 53% |
| Michael Brennan TOUGH FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 9% | 51% |
| Johnny Keefer NEUTRAL | 0.2% | 4% | 10% | 52% |
| Sam Stevens NEUTRAL | 0.2% | 4% | 11% | 53% |
| Stewart Cink GOOD FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 10% | 51% |
| Haotong Li GOOD FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 9% | 50% |
| Daniel Hillier NEUTRAL | 0.2% | 4% | 10% | 52% |
| Marco Penge TOUGH FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 9% | 49% |
| Cameron Smith ELITE FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 11% | 54% |
| Jackson Suber NEUTRAL | 0.2% | 4% | 9% | 50% |
| Matt McCarty ELITE FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 10% | 52% |
| John Parry ELITE FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 11% | 56% |
| Laurie Canter ELITE FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 9% | 52% |
| Pierceson Coody TOUGH FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 9% | 50% |
| Lucas Herbert NEUTRAL | 0.2% | 3% | 8% | 47% |
| Nico Echavarria ELITE FIT | 0.2% | 3% | 9% | 48% |
| Daniel Berger GOOD FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 9% | 48% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen NEUTRAL | 0.2% | 4% | 9% | 49% |
| Hennie Du Plessis NEUTRAL | 0.2% | 3% | 8% | 47% |
| Francesco Molinari ELITE FIT | 0.2% | 3% | 8% | 49% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard TOUGH FIT | 0.2% | 3% | 8% | 47% |
| Sami Valimaki ELITE FIT | 0.2% | 3% | 8% | 48% |
| Keita Nakajima GOOD FIT | 0.1% | 3% | 8% | 49% |
| Jesper Svensson NEUTRAL | 0.1% | 3% | 7% | 46% |
| Jayden Schaper ELITE FIT | 0.1% | 3% | 8% | 50% |
| Andy Sullivan ELITE FIT | 0.1% | 3% | 8% | 49% |
| Bernd Wiesberger ELITE FIT | 0.1% | 3% | 8% | 48% |
| Scott Vincent ELITE FIT | 0.1% | 3% | 7% | 48% |
| Matthew Jordan GOOD FIT | 0.1% | 3% | 7% | 47% |
| Dan Brown ELITE FIT | 0.1% | 3% | 7% | 45% |
| Aldrich Potgieter TOUGH FIT | 0.1% | 2% | 5% | 40% |
| Billy Horschel ELITE FIT | 0.1% | 2% | 6% | 44% |
| Adrien Saddier GOOD FIT | 0.1% | 2% | 6% | 43% |
| Joe Dean GOOD FIT | 0.1% | 2% | 5% | 41% |
| Kota Kaneko ELITE FIT | 0.1% | 2% | 6% | 45% |
| Jose Luis Ballester NEUTRAL | 0.1% | 2% | 4% | 38% |
| Henrik Stenson ELITE FIT | 0.1% | 1% | 4% | 37% |
| Dan Bradbury GOOD FIT | 0.1% | 2% | 5% | 40% |
| Antoine Rozner GOOD FIT | 0.1% | 2% | 5% | 41% |
| Padraig Harrington ELITE FIT | 0.1% | 1% | 4% | 39% |
| Shaun Norris ELITE FIT | 0.1% | 2% | 4% | 41% |
| Kazuma Kobori ELITE FIT | 0.0% | 1% | 4% | 38% |
| Martin Couvra GOOD FIT | 0.0% | 1% | 4% | 40% |
| Joakim Lagergren NEUTRAL | 0.0% | 1% | 3% | 33% |
| Sam Bairstow NEUTRAL | 0.0% | 1% | 3% | 32% |
| Francesco Laporta GOOD FIT | 0.0% | 1% | 3% | 35% |
| Frederic LaCroix NEUTRAL | 0.0% | 1% | 3% | 32% |
| Michael Hollick GOOD FIT | 0.0% | 1% | 2% | 31% |
| Trav Smyth GOOD FIT | 0.0% | 1% | 2% | 30% |
Hardest holes — the gauntlet
Scoring relative to par from the 2017 Open here (researched estimates). The long par-4 6th was the clear No. 1; the exacting par-4s and the wind-exposed par-3 12th do the rest. The field averaged +1.28 that week.
| Hole | Par | Yards | Scoring to par |
|---|
| Hole 6 | 4 | 499 | +0.45 |
| Hole 1 | 4 | 448 | +0.32 |
| Hole 18 | 4 | 473 | +0.30 |
| Hole 12 | 3 | 183 | +0.24 |
| Hole 9 | 4 | 416 | +0.20 |
By the numbers
Par 70
Two par-5s, four par-3s — plays to roughly 7,223 yards for the Open
+1.28
Field scoring average at the 2017 Open — a stern but fair test
~+5
Where the 36-hole cut landed in 2017 (top 70 & ties)
11×
Opens hosted — 2026 is Royal Birkdale's 11th
2
Reachable par-5s in the closing five — where the charges are made