● LIVE · In Progress
Leaderboard · our pre-event model rank in the last column
| Pos | Player | Total | Thru | Model |
|---|
| 1 | Dustin Johnson | -4 | | #54 |
| 2 | Wyndham Clark | -4 | | #23 |
| 3 | Sam Stevens | -2 | | #69 |
| 4 | Matt Fitzpatrick | -2 | | #5 |
| 5 | Jon Rahm | -2 | | #4 |
| 6 | Rory McIlroy | -1 | | #2 |
| 7 | Ludvig Åberg | -1 | | — |
| 8 | Brian Harman | -1 | | #57 |
| 9 | Max Greyserman | -1 | | #62 |
| 10 | Ben James | -1 | | #84 |
| 11 | Ryder Cowan | -1 | | #123 |
| 12 | Max McGreevy | -1 | | #79 |
| 13 | Ryan Fox | -1 | | #53 |
| 14 | Corey Conners | -1 | | #70 |
| 15 | Ryo Hisatsune | -1 | | #60 |
| 16 | Bryson DeChambeau | -1 | | #13 |
| 17 | Gary Woodland | -1 | | #45 |
| 18 | Ben Kohles | -1 | | #85 |
| 19 | Angel Hidalgo | -1 | | — |
| 20 | Keith Mitchell | E | | #49 |
The read
Shinnecock is the rare U.S. Open that hands you the widest fairways on the rota (40+ yds) and then defends with everything else: penal fescue, shaved run-offs, tiny contoured greens, coastal wind, and one of the toughest par-3 sets in golf. The greens run slow for a U.S. Open (~11 on the stimp), so the defense isn't speed — it's angles and iron precision. Our model leans into accurate iron players who flight it in wind and scramble, and quietly fades the bombers whose distance edge the setup neutralizes. The numbers below carry that thesis all the way down the board.
What wins at Shinnecock Hills
How our model weights the skills that actually move the needle here — distance is deliberately down-weighted.
Approach play32%
Small, contoured greens with shaved run-offs — proximity is everything.
Scrambling & around-green22%
Miss the green and you're in fescue or a collection area. Up-and-down rate decides weekends.
Driving accuracy19%
Fairways are wide, but the fescue miss is a half-shot penalty. Position > power.
Wind & flight control15%
Coastal, exposed wind. Trajectory control separates the field, especially Thursday.
Putting12%
Slowest U.S. Open greens in years (~11 stimp) — flattens the putting edge.
Course fit — who the setup helps and hurts
Each player's course-fit shift (Top-20 probability) once this week's demands are layered onto raw talent — where the board diverges from a generic power ranking.
▲ The course gives
Russell Henley▲ +2.9pp
Win 2.1% · Top-20 35%
Andrew Putnam▲ +2.4pp
Win 0.2% · Top-20 12%
Tommy Fleetwood▲ +2.3pp
Win 3.8% · Top-20 45%
Si Woo Kim▲ +2.1pp
Win 2.5% · Top-20 38%
Alex Noren▲ +1.9pp
Win 0.6% · Top-20 20%
Aaron Rai▲ +1.8pp
Win 0.8% · Top-20 23%
▼ The course takes
Rory McIlroy▼ −2.7pp
Win 5.9% · Top-20 50%
Nicolai Hojgaard▼ −2.6pp
Win 0.8% · Top-20 21%
Jon Rahm▼ −2.3pp
Win 4.7% · Top-20 47%
Joaquin Niemann▼ −2.2pp
Win 0.9% · Top-20 21%
Bryson DeChambeau▼ −2.1pp
Win 1.9% · Top-20 30%
Chris Gotterup▼ −2.0pp
Win 1.5% · Top-20 27%
Scouting report — the contenders
Our model's one-line read on each headliner — what the course does to their game.
Scottie SchefflerNEUTRAL
World #1 with no weakness — the venue doesn't add to his edge, but his class doesn't need it. The man to beat.
Rory McIlroyTOUGH FIT
The setup's biggest puzzle for him: wide-but-penal fairways neutralize his distance edge, so his iron consistency in wind is the swing factor.
Xander SchauffeleNEUTRAL
Top-15 in all 9 U.S. Open starts — the platonic Shinnecock profile: elite approach, ice in his veins, zero panic at even par.
Jon RahmTOUGH FIT
Elite, but the model trims him here — a power-led profile this venue flattens. If the putter shows up, the ceiling is still champion.
Matt FitzpatrickELITE FIT
A U.S. Open winner at a precision test, and one of the board's best course fits — elite approach + around-green is exactly the toolkit.
Tommy FleetwoodELITE FIT
The biggest-class course-fit riser: accuracy, iron control, and links pedigree. The kind of week his game has been building toward.
Ludvig AbergNEUTRAL
Prodigious talent, but distance-led — the venue caps the ceiling a touch. The irons are good enough to overcome it.
Cameron YoungTOUGH FIT
Firepower to spare, but streaky irons make him a tougher fit until the approach play settles in the wind.
Si Woo KimELITE FIT
Quietly elite ball-striker with a sharp short game — the setup rewards his profile more than the market gives him credit for.
Sam BurnsGOOD FIT
Putting carries the profile — the question is whether the ball-striking holds up in coastal wind over four rounds.
Russell HenleyELITE FIT
The model's #1 course-fit riser. Accuracy-and-irons archetype; nobody's game maps onto Shinnecock more cleanly.
Collin MorikawaGOOD FIT
Elite iron play is a strong fit; the putter is the gate. When it cooperates, he contends anywhere — especially here.
Conditions & the wave draw
Live forecast — the wind is the defense, and the tee-time draw can be worth half a shot.
Thu R1
20mph
gusts 38
77°F · 21% rain
Fri R2
17mph
gusts 28
77°F · 1% rain
Sat R3
18mph
gusts 33
77°F · 0% rain
Sun R4
20mph
gusts 26
76°F · 7% rain
Thursday's morning wave averages ~12 mph vs ~17 mph in the afternoon — the AM draw looks calmer and is the edge. On an exposed course the morning/afternoon split matters, and our model accounts for the wave advantage. The cut falls after Round 2 — the cut falls after Round 2 (top 60 & ties), historically near +5 to +6 here.
☀ Thursday AM wave — top names
Scottie SchefflerRory McIlroyTommy FleetwoodLudvig AbergCameron YoungSi Woo KimSam BurnsChris Gotterup
🌗 Thursday PM wave — top names
Xander SchauffeleJon RahmMatt FitzpatrickRussell HenleyCollin MorikawaBryson DeChambeauPatrick CantlayViktor Hovland
Past champions at Shinnecock Hills
Winning scores cluster around even par — among the sternest tests in the rotation. It rewards patience and ball-striking and punishes anyone forcing it.
| Year | Champion | Score | The story |
|---|
| 2018 | Brooks Koepka | +1 (281) | Firm greens & Saturday wind — only four players finished under par all week |
| 2004 | Retief Goosen | −4 (276) | The baked-out 7th green; survivors needed ice in their veins on the greens |
| 1995 | Corey Pavin | E (280) | The 4-wood into 18 — pure ball-striking under the gun |
| 1986 | Raymond Floyd | −1 (279) | A cold-blooded late charge at 43 |
The contenders — skill profiles
Season-long strokes-gained — the skill baseline behind the board. Approach and Around-Green carry the most weight here.
| Player | SG Total | Off-Tee | Approach | Around-Grn | Putting |
|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +2.81 | +0.80 | +1.09 | +0.42 | +0.51 |
| Rory McIlroy | +2.23 | +0.92 | +0.79 | +0.20 | +0.32 |
| Jon Rahm | +2.17 | +0.74 | +0.88 | +0.32 | +0.22 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1.96 | +0.79 | +0.80 | +0.14 | +0.23 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1.90 | +0.69 | +0.76 | +0.12 | +0.33 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +1.89 | +0.36 | +0.84 | +0.45 | +0.24 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1.85 | +0.60 | +0.62 | +0.29 | +0.34 |
| Cameron Young | +1.84 | +0.66 | +0.67 | +0.21 | +0.30 |
| Si Woo Kim | +1.80 | +0.62 | +0.72 | +0.31 | +0.15 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1.56 | +0.39 | +0.75 | +0.27 | +0.16 |
| Russell Henley | +1.54 | +0.40 | +0.63 | +0.24 | +0.26 |
| Sam Burns | +1.48 | +0.30 | +0.43 | +0.11 | +0.64 |
| J.J. Spaun | +1.46 | +0.49 | +0.93 | +0.17 | -0.13 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1.37 | +0.41 | +0.73 | +0.14 | +0.09 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1.31 | +0.84 | +0.36 | -0.05 | +0.16 |
Model board — full field
Our blended model (course-fit overlay on baseline form) for the field. ELITE/GOOD FIT and TOUGH FIT flag how each game maps to the course.
| Player | Win | Top 10 | Top 20 | Make Cut |
|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 12.0% | 49% | 66% | 87% |
| Rory McIlroy TOUGH FIT | 5.9% | 33% | 50% | 80% |
| Xander Schauffele | 4.8% | 30% | 47% | 78% |
| Jon Rahm TOUGH FIT | 4.7% | 30% | 47% | 78% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick ELITE FIT | 3.9% | 28% | 46% | 78% |
| Tommy Fleetwood ELITE FIT | 3.8% | 28% | 45% | 78% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 3.4% | 24% | 40% | 74% |
| Cameron Young TOUGH FIT | 3.2% | 24% | 39% | 74% |
| Si Woo Kim ELITE FIT | 2.5% | 22% | 38% | 74% |
| Sam Burns GOOD FIT | 2.1% | 19% | 33% | 70% |
| Russell Henley ELITE FIT | 2.1% | 20% | 35% | 72% |
| Collin Morikawa GOOD FIT | 1.9% | 18% | 32% | 70% |
| Bryson DeChambeau TOUGH FIT | 1.9% | 16% | 30% | 66% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1.7% | 17% | 32% | 70% |
| Viktor Hovland | 1.7% | 16% | 31% | 68% |
| Justin Thomas | 1.5% | 15% | 28% | 65% |
| Chris Gotterup TOUGH FIT | 1.5% | 15% | 27% | 66% |
| J.J. Spaun GOOD FIT | 1.5% | 16% | 29% | 68% |
| Min Woo Lee TOUGH FIT | 1.4% | 15% | 28% | 66% |
| Brooks Koepka | 1.3% | 13% | 26% | 64% |
| Kurt Kitayama TOUGH FIT | 1.3% | 13% | 25% | 64% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 1.3% | 14% | 27% | 65% |
| Wyndham Clark | 1.2% | 13% | 25% | 63% |
| Patrick Reed ELITE FIT | 1.2% | 14% | 27% | 67% |
| Maverick McNealy | 1.1% | 13% | 25% | 64% |
| Justin Rose | 1.1% | 12% | 23% | 61% |
| Jordan Spieth | 1.0% | 12% | 24% | 63% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 1.0% | 13% | 25% | 65% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 1.0% | 11% | 22% | 61% |
| Adam Scott TOUGH FIT | 1.0% | 12% | 24% | 63% |
| Ben Griffin | 0.9% | 12% | 25% | 64% |
| Bud Cauley | 0.9% | 11% | 23% | 63% |
| Shane Lowry | 0.9% | 11% | 23% | 63% |
| Joaquin Niemann TOUGH FIT | 0.9% | 11% | 21% | 60% |
| Hideki Matsuyama GOOD FIT | 0.8% | 11% | 22% | 62% |
| Harris English GOOD FIT | 0.8% | 11% | 24% | 64% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard TOUGH FIT | 0.8% | 10% | 21% | 59% |
| Aaron Rai ELITE FIT | 0.8% | 11% | 23% | 63% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick GOOD FIT | 0.7% | 10% | 22% | 61% |
| Ryan Gerard | 0.7% | 10% | 21% | 60% |
| Jake Knapp TOUGH FIT | 0.7% | 9% | 19% | 57% |
| David Puig TOUGH FIT | 0.7% | 9% | 19% | 58% |
| Alex Noren ELITE FIT | 0.6% | 9% | 20% | 60% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0.6% | 9% | 19% | 58% |
| Gary Woodland | 0.6% | 8% | 17% | 55% |
| Alex Smalley | 0.6% | 9% | 18% | 58% |
| Keegan Bradley | 0.6% | 8% | 18% | 57% |
| Sepp Straka | 0.5% | 8% | 17% | 56% |
| Keith Mitchell | 0.5% | 8% | 17% | 57% |
| Rickie Fowler GOOD FIT | 0.5% | 7% | 16% | 54% |
| J.T. Poston GOOD FIT | 0.5% | 7% | 16% | 56% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0.4% | 7% | 15% | 53% |
| Ryan Fox | 0.4% | 7% | 15% | 55% |
| Dustin Johnson | 0.4% | 6% | 14% | 52% |
| Harry Hall | 0.4% | 7% | 16% | 56% |
| Sahith Theegala | 0.4% | 6% | 15% | 53% |
| Brian Harman GOOD FIT | 0.4% | 6% | 14% | 53% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0.3% | 6% | 14% | 52% |
| Tom Kim GOOD FIT | 0.3% | 6% | 14% | 52% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0.3% | 5% | 13% | 51% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0.3% | 5% | 13% | 50% |
| Max Greyserman | 0.3% | 5% | 12% | 49% |
| Lucas Herbert | 0.3% | 5% | 12% | 49% |
| Andrew Novak | 0.3% | 5% | 13% | 51% |
| Jason Day | 0.3% | 6% | 13% | 51% |
| Daniel Berger GOOD FIT | 0.3% | 5% | 13% | 51% |
| Davis Thompson | 0.3% | 5% | 13% | 51% |
| Nick Taylor GOOD FIT | 0.3% | 5% | 13% | 53% |
| Sam Stevens | 0.3% | 5% | 13% | 53% |
| Corey Conners | 0.3% | 5% | 13% | 51% |
| Sungjae Im GOOD FIT | 0.3% | 5% | 12% | 50% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0.2% | 5% | 11% | 49% |
| Michael Kim | 0.2% | 5% | 11% | 49% |
| Michael Brennan | 0.2% | 4% | 11% | 47% |
| Jayden Schaper GOOD FIT | 0.2% | 5% | 12% | 53% |
| Matt McCarty GOOD FIT | 0.2% | 5% | 12% | 50% |
| Andrew Putnam ELITE FIT | 0.2% | 5% | 12% | 52% |
| Cameron Smith | 0.2% | 5% | 11% | 50% |
| Max McGreevy GOOD FIT | 0.2% | 4% | 11% | 49% |
| William Mouw | 0.2% | 4% | 10% | 46% |
| Jackson Suber | 0.2% | 4% | 10% | 47% |
| Matti Schmid | 0.2% | 3% | 9% | 43% |
| Johnny Keefer | 0.1% | 4% | 9% | 44% |
| Ben James | 0.1% | 3% | 8% | 43% |
| Ben Kohles GOOD FIT | 0.1% | 3% | 8% | 44% |
| Emiliano Grillo GOOD FIT | 0.1% | 3% | 8% | 44% |
| Chris Kirk | 0.1% | 3% | 7% | 42% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.1% | 2% | 7% | 42% |
| Nico Echavarria GOOD FIT | 0.1% | 2% | 6% | 39% |
| Carlos Ortiz | 0.1% | 3% | 7% | 40% |
| Cooper Dossey | 0.1% | 2% | 7% | 42% |
| Nathan Kimsey | 0.1% | 2% | 7% | 43% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0.1% | 3% | 7% | 42% |
| Preston Stout (a) | 0.1% | 2% | 6% | 38% |
| Billy Horschel | 0.1% | 2% | 5% | 37% |
| Adrien Saddier | 0.1% | 2% | 5% | 36% |
| John Parry | 0.1% | 2% | 6% | 40% |
| Hennie Du Plessis | 0.1% | 2% | 5% | 35% |
| Kevin Roy | 0.1% | 1% | 5% | 35% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 0.0% | 1% | 4% | 32% |
| Caleb Surratt | 0.0% | 1% | 4% | 33% |
| Neal Shipley | 0.0% | 2% | 5% | 35% |
| Ugo Coussaud | 0.0% | 1% | 4% | 34% |
| Zac Blair GOOD FIT | 0.0% | 1% | 5% | 36% |
| Laurie Canter | 0.0% | 1% | 4% | 33% |
| Matthew Jordan | 0.0% | 1% | 4% | 34% |
| James Nicholas | 0.0% | 1% | 3% | 30% |
| Chandler Phillips | 0.0% | 1% | 4% | 34% |
| Dylan Wu | 0.0% | 1% | 3% | 31% |
Hardest holes — the gauntlet
Scoring relative to par from the last U.S. Open here (2018). The long par-4s and the par-3 set decide it.
| Hole | Par | Yards | Scoring to par |
|---|
| Hole 18 | 4 | 494 | +0.41 |
| Hole 14 | 4 | 532 | +0.38 |
| Hole 9 | 4 | 488 | +0.31 |
| Hole 2 | 3 | 252 | +0.30 |
| Hole 7 (Redan) | 3 | 184 | +0.26 |
By the numbers
E par
Typical winning score — Shinnecock plays to roughly even
~+5
Where the cut line has historically landed
4
Brutal par-3s — among the toughest sets in golf
~11
Green speed (stimp) — slowest U.S. Open greens in years
40+ yd
Fairway width — the widest U.S. Open driving setup