The course — what wins at Shinnecock
Fairways play full width (40+ yds) — the widest U.S. Open driving setup — but the miss is brutal (penal fescue). The greens run slow for a U.S. Open (~11 stimp), the slowest in years, so the defense isn't speed — it's angles, shaved run-offs, small contoured greens, and four of the toughest par-3s in golf. Net: this rewards iron precision and scrambling over power or putting. Thursday's forecast is windy, which sharpens the premium on ball-strikers who can control flight. Our model leans into accurate iron players who handle wind and scramble — and fades bombers whose edge (distance) the setup neutralizes.
📋 The Card — our U.S. Open plays 20 plays · all +EV vs current market
Our model's edges at current major-book odds. ◆◆◆ = strongest. Make-cut is the most beatable market this week; finish parlays are big-payout swings. Confirm exact price at bet time — golf odds move fast.
| Play | Market | Odds | Edge | Tier |
|---|
| Si Woo Kim ⭐ | Make cut | -235 @fanduel | +6.0% | ◆◆◆ |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | Make cut | -137 @bet365 | +4.9% | ◆◆◆ |
| Alex Noren | Make cut | -134 @fanduel | +4.4% | ◆◆◆ |
| Adam Scott | Make cut | -156 @fanduel | +3.3% | ◆◆ |
| Brian Harman | Make cut | -108 @fanduel | +3.2% | ◆◆ |
| Keegan Bradley | Make cut | -126 @fanduel | +3.1% | ◆◆ |
| Nick Taylor | Make cut | -110 @fanduel | +2.6% | ◆◆ |
| Aaron Rai | Make cut | -148 @draftkings | +1.8% | ◆ |
| Patrick Reed | Make cut | -205 @fanduel | +1.7% | ◆ |
| Sepp Straka | Make cut | -130 @fanduel | +1.4% | ◆ |
| Tom Kim | Make cut | -108 @fanduel | +1.3% | ◆ |
| Ben Griffin | Make cut | -156 @fanduel | +1.2% | ◆ |
| Ryan Gerard | Make cut | -134 @fanduel | +1.1% | ◆ |
| T. Fleetwood + K. Kitayama | 2-leg make-cut | +109 @bet365 | +4.4% | 🎲 |
| S. Burns + M. Lee | 2-leg make-cut | +130 @fanduel | +2.3% | 🎲 |
| J. Spaun + M. McNealy | 2-leg make-cut | +136 @bet365 | +2.7% | 🎲 |
| Kurt Kitayama | Top 10 | +700 @bet365 | +1.5% | ◆ |
| S. Kim + H. English | Top 20 parlay | +978 @fanduel | +0.6% | 🎲 |
| K. Kitayama + A. Scott | Top 10 parlay | +6300 @bet365 | +0.2% | 🎲 |
| S. Kim + A. Rai + A. Putnam | 3-leg make-cut | +359 @fanduel | +2.2% | 🎲 |
Course history — past U.S. Opens at Shinnecock
Winning scores cluster around even par — Shinnecock is one of the sternest tests in the rota: it rewards patience and ball-striking and punishes anyone forcing it.
| Year | Champion | Score | The story |
|---|
| 2018 | Brooks Koepka | +1 (281) | Saturday winds and firm greens; only four players finished under par all week |
| 2004 | Retief Goosen | -4 (276) | The baked-out 7th green - players could not hold the surface |
| 1995 | Corey Pavin | E (280) | Pavin 4-wood into 18 - pure ball-striking won it |
| 1986 | Raymond Floyd | -1 (279) | A late charge at 43 years old |
Strokes-gained profiles — the contenders
How the board is built. At Shinnecock, Approach and Around-Green carry the most weight; raw distance matters less than usual.
| Player | SG Total | Off-Tee | Approach | Around-Grn | Putting |
|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +2.81 | +0.80 | +1.09 | +0.42 | +0.51 |
| Rory McIlroy | +2.23 | +0.92 | +0.79 | +0.20 | +0.32 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1.96 | +0.79 | +0.80 | +0.14 | +0.23 |
| Jon Rahm | +2.17 | +0.74 | +0.88 | +0.32 | +0.22 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +1.89 | +0.36 | +0.84 | +0.45 | +0.24 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1.85 | +0.60 | +0.62 | +0.29 | +0.34 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1.90 | +0.69 | +0.76 | +0.12 | +0.33 |
| Cameron Young | +1.84 | +0.66 | +0.67 | +0.21 | +0.30 |
| Si Woo Kim | +1.80 | +0.62 | +0.72 | +0.31 | +0.15 |
| Russell Henley | +1.54 | +0.40 | +0.63 | +0.24 | +0.26 |
| Sam Burns | +1.48 | +0.30 | +0.43 | +0.11 | +0.64 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1.37 | +0.41 | +0.73 | +0.14 | +0.09 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1.31 | +0.84 | +0.36 | -0.05 | +0.16 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1.56 | +0.39 | +0.75 | +0.27 | +0.16 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1.29 | +0.29 | +0.70 | +0.12 | +0.18 |
| J.J. Spaun | +1.46 | +0.49 | +0.93 | +0.17 | -0.13 |
| Min Woo Lee | +1.47 | +0.59 | +0.33 | +0.31 | +0.24 |
| Justin Thomas | +1.46 | +0.30 | +0.51 | +0.40 | +0.25 |
Hardest holes — the Shinnecock gauntlet
From the last U.S. Open here (2018). The long par-4s and the par-3 set decide it.
| Hole | Par | Yards | Scoring |
|---|
| Hole 18 | Par 4 | 494 yds | +0.41 to par |
| Hole 14 | Par 4 | 532 yds | +0.38 to par |
| Hole 9 | Par 4 | 488 yds | +0.31 to par |
| Hole 2 | Par 3 | 252 yds | +0.30 to par |
| Hole 7 | Par 3 | 184 yds | +0.26 to par |
Form & pedigree watch
Trending up into the week: 🔥 Jake Sollon🔥 Brooks Koepka🔥 Greyson Leach🔥 Jimmy Stanger🔥 Wyndham Clark
📌 Notable: Xander Schauffele has finished top-15 in all 9 of his U.S. Open starts (3rd-most top-15s at U.S. Opens since 1983). Brooks Koepka owns the field's strongest major pedigree and is the defending Shinnecock champion.
Model board — full field odds
Our model's probabilities for every contender. Fit badges flag how each player's game matches Shinnecock specifically.
| Player | Win | Top 10 | Top 20 | Make Cut |
|---|
| Scottie Scheffler elite fit | 11.5% | 47% | 64% | 88% |
| Rory McIlroy good fit | 5.6% | 31% | 48% | 80% |
| Xander Schauffele good fit | 4.6% | 29% | 45% | 79% |
| Jon Rahm elite fit | 4.2% | 28% | 45% | 79% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick elite fit | 3.7% | 27% | 44% | 79% |
| Tommy Fleetwood elite fit | 3.7% | 27% | 44% | 79% |
| Ludvig Aberg good fit | 3.0% | 23% | 38% | 75% |
| Cameron Young good fit | 2.8% | 22% | 37% | 74% |
| Si Woo Kim elite fit | 2.2% | 21% | 36% | 75% |
| Russell Henley elite fit | 2.0% | 19% | 35% | 74% |
| Sam Burns | 1.9% | 18% | 32% | 71% |
| Collin Morikawa elite fit | 1.7% | 17% | 32% | 71% |
| Bryson DeChambeau poor fit | 1.7% | 16% | 28% | 68% |
| Patrick Cantlay elite fit | 1.6% | 17% | 31% | 71% |
| Viktor Hovland good fit | 1.6% | 15% | 29% | 70% |
| J.J. Spaun elite fit | 1.5% | 15% | 29% | 70% |
| Min Woo Lee | 1.4% | 14% | 27% | 67% |
| Justin Thomas | 1.4% | 14% | 27% | 68% |
| Chris Gotterup poor fit | 1.4% | 13% | 26% | 66% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 1.3% | 14% | 26% | 67% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 1.3% | 13% | 25% | 66% |
| Brooks Koepka poor fit | 1.2% | 13% | 25% | 65% |
| Maverick McNealy | 1.2% | 12% | 24% | 65% |
| Patrick Reed good fit | 1.2% | 14% | 27% | 68% |
| Wyndham Clark | 1.2% | 13% | 24% | 65% |
| Robert MacIntyre poor fit | 1.1% | 13% | 25% | 66% |
| Justin Rose | 1.1% | 12% | 23% | 64% |
| Jordan Spieth poor fit | 1.1% | 12% | 23% | 65% |
| Adam Scott good fit | 1.0% | 12% | 23% | 65% |
| Ben Griffin | 1.0% | 12% | 24% | 66% |
| Bud Cauley | 1.0% | 11% | 23% | 65% |
| Kristoffer Reitan poor fit | 1.0% | 11% | 22% | 62% |
| Shane Lowry | 1.0% | 12% | 24% | 65% |
| Harris English | 0.9% | 12% | 24% | 66% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0.9% | 11% | 22% | 64% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0.9% | 11% | 23% | 64% |
| Aaron Rai elite fit | 0.9% | 11% | 23% | 66% |
| Joaquin Niemann | 0.9% | 11% | 21% | 62% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard poor fit | 0.8% | 10% | 21% | 62% |
| Ryan Gerard | 0.8% | 10% | 21% | 63% |
Conditions
Thursday: windy (gusts to ~25–35 mph in the afternoon wave) → harder scoring, premium on flight control. The morning/afternoon wave split matters at a coastal course — our model accounts for the tee-time advantage. Cut comes after Round 2 (top 65 & ties).
All figures are Signal Labs model output. For entertainment; 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER. Not a guarantee — golf is high variance.